This editorial, written by Marcello Cazzaniga, founder of Vehnta Software, explores the future of the challenge between Google Search and AI Chatbots.
Many of our clients, or prospects, in calls or meetings ask us how we think our product can adapt to the trend, which started some time ago, of users who increasingly use AI Chatbots—most commonly ChatGPT or Gemini—instead of Google Search. In fact, in recent months, at least on LinkedIn, many seem to believe they already know how the market will evolve in the future: as if they’re all in the control room at OpenAI or Alphabet—or in some other control room altogether!
Let’s try to bring some clarity.
(Starting from the premise that no one knows the future) our analysis is based, however, on concrete numbers—at least those available to us—and on the rational logic of Italian magistrate Giovanni Falcone‘s investigative method, namely: “Follow the money” (or “Segui i soldi”). And I’ll add, as Gordon Gekko says in Wall Street (the fictional character played by Michael Douglas in the 1987 movie Wall Street and its 2010 sequel Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps): “It’s all about money, the rest is just conversation.”
Personally, it seems to me that many LinkedIn commentators on the latest developments apply, a little too literally, the logic of Trilussa‘s “average chicken“: meaning, if I do something, or my cousin does it, then the whole world must be doing it too. To try to look beyond one’s own nose, instead we’re proposing a text based on data that—for anyone who takes the time to read it through to the end—might turn out to be interesting, or at least offer a hybrid perspective between Falcone and Gekko. Which already could be interesting in itself. Or at least, that’s what we’ll attempt here.
So, let’s move on to the numbers.
According to the latest sources from mid-2025, such as CNBC and TMTPOST, OpenAI has reached an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of about $10 billion, excluding revenues from licensing contracts with Microsoft and other one-off deals. Some estimates even project revenues of around $12.7 billion for 2025, when factoring in a wider range of sources. This shows how vast the distance still is between the world’s leading search engine and the leading AI chatbot.
Now let’s compare with Google’s data.
Still staying in the realm of numbers, as of late 2024 (according to Bloomberg, citing Sarah Friar, Chief Financial Officer of OpenAI), Microsoft-backed OpenAI generates about 75% of its revenue from consumer subscriptions. The company’s consumer strategy for ChatGPT starts at $20 per month. Bloomberg adds that, at least until a few months ago, OpenAI was converting between 5% and 6% of its free users into paid subscriptions (based on data from the end of 2024).
All this comes after years of investments totaling somewhere around $50 billion—or perhaps even more, if we consider infrastructure investments not explicitly tied to ChatGPT, but still relevant, like data centers, hardware, AGI research, and other significant expenditures. The problem is that since OpenAI is not publicly traded, the numbers aren’t entirely clear. What is certain, however, is that costs are not expected to decrease, as reported by Cornell University‘s analysis. And, furthermore, OpenAI itself told The Information (as picked up by PYMNTS) that it expects spending to reach $115 billion by 2029.
So OpenAI does, in fact, have a business challenge. As long as its promises satisfy investors, the system will hold, but what happens if projections change? Some are already calling it a bubble—like the dot-com bubble—but maybe that comparison isn’t entirely accurate given the different players involved (though that’s another discussion altogether).
Now let’s turn to Google.
According to Statista, the German online platform specializing in data collection, organization, visualization, and sale of statistical insights, market reports, and surveys, Alphabet (Google LLC’s parent company, whose main products include Google Search) generated about $264.6 billion from advertising via Google Ads, YouTube Ads, and the Google Network. Of that $264.6 billion, according to DFin.pro (a financial analysis platform for investors), roughly 75% comes from Google Ads (categorized under “Google Search & other”).
Clearly, this looks like good news—especially considering that, as reported by Barron’s, as of September 16, 2025, Alphabet had a market capitalization of around $3.05 trillion.
And speaking of search engines, if we think back just a few months—or at most two years ago—there was hype that Bing (Microsoft’s search engine), boosted by ChatGPT, would dethrone Google Search. That didn’t happen. Though Google has started to feel some cracks.
Bing has been showing steady but modest growth in recent years, while still remaining a relatively small share of the global search market. According to Statista, its global market share rose from about 2–3% in the 2018–2022 period to about 3.8–4.0% in 2025. In the United States, this growth is even more visible, with Bing reaching around 7.5% share. This growth is particularly significant on desktop, where Bing’s share now exceeds 12% globally—suggesting stronger momentum in that specific segment over the last one or two years. Despite Google losing a few percentage points, its dominant position remains undeniable. Bing’s success can partly be attributed to factors like AI integration, being set as the default search engine in Microsoft products like Edge and Windows, and a strategy targeting market niches.
There are also Google’s ongoing legal battles worldwide—primarily in the U.S. and Europe—over its search engine and Chrome browser. But that’s not our focus today. Conspiracy theorists say Google was waiting for a rival to avoid monopoly issues, even suggesting everything was orchestrated with Microsoft. But that seems far-fetched.
Let’s get back to where we started, because Google’s internal “civil war” is also giving it chills at the Googleplex.
Google Ads is Google’s advertising system across various channels, but its biggest revenues come from Search. These are the ads—ubiquitous for some query categories—that appear ahead of organic results.
But recently, for some kinds of searches, AI Overview is consistently at the top of the SERP. And as Semrush (probably the most important digital marketing tool on the market, specialized in search marketing) brilliantly explains, only 5% of SERPs with an AIO (AI Overview) also contained PPC ads (pay-per-click, i.e., Google Ads). So even Google Search itself is undergoing major changes due to this “internal competition” from AI Overview.
According to estimates from Search Engine Land, these are significantly reducing clicks for traditional organic listings—particularly for non-branded informational queries. Semrush data shared with Digiday confirms that the percentage of Google searches showing an AI Overview has steadily increased this year, stabilizing in May at around 20%—at least for desktop searches in the U.S., where the study was conducted.
So, if Google is cannibalizing itself with this “internal competition” from AI-based tools, it’s likely to prevent users from turning to AI chatbots instead of Google Search (Gemini included).
One thing is for sure: this battle for attention is fascinating.
OpenAI—no doubt changing the world—seems, from a pure business standpoint, to be investing much more than it’s making. Google, meanwhile, is forced to cannibalize part of its main business, yet still remains the Big G reigning almost unchallenged.
Of course, considering that Google was officially founded on September 4, 1998, while OpenAI was created as a nonprofit research organization on December 11, 2015, one might say the vast difference in scale between the two giants lies simply in their history. Perhaps that’s true. Or perhaps not.
Certainly, Google—like Meta, TikTok, or even Amazon in its own way—has made advertising within its platforms the true fuel of its journey. And certainly, OpenAI cannot continue investing these sums without returns. So what then?
Well, in my humble opinion, chatbots will eventually introduce advertising systems—structured at the top of answers, just like Google Ads. ChatGPT, Gemini, and then the rest.
I think they’re simply waiting to see who makes the first move. A move that could spark a user shift to a competitor’s solution.
In the meantime, Google can continue “burning money,” OpenAI (as long as Microsoft’s support remains) can continue “burning money,” while others are destined—some more, some less—for oblivion. Or if not oblivion, as SEO specialists used to say, at least “the second page of Google’s search results.”
In my modest opinion, this will be the path that changes the industry’s future.
Returning to the first line of this article: from Vehnta’s perspective, this shift could bring even more value to our solution for direct advertising to target companies via Vehnta Software.
Many B2B companies still waste their budgets on generic Google Ads campaigns, behaving as if they were B2C companies. Vehnta Software, designed specifically for the B2B sector, uses Google Ads to reach only ideal clients, offering greater visibility, more qualified leads, and significant cost savings. That’s how it is today. Tomorrow, if AI chatbots introduce advertising, Vehnta will still be at the forefront—bringing its philosophy to AI chatbots as well.
And finally, to those who say that in the future, Internet access will happen only through AI chatbot apps,
I’ll just remind you that the Internet came alongside television, which came alongside radio, which came alongside books and theater.
And there are still people who go to the theater (and rightly so) after thousands of years of history. Ad maiora!
Marcello Cazzaniga
Executive Director & Founder
